Greetings,

Below is the CAR polling report which is sent to you as a member of Connecticut Association of REALTORS, Inc.  If you have any questions regarding this information, please contact David Pendrys at the CAR office.

Volume 2, Issue 8 - October 25, 2010

The Race for Governor

Connecticut’s Democratic nominee for governor, Dan Malloy, has widened his lead on Republican challenger Tom Foley to seven points, according to the most recent Quinnipiac University Poll (Q Poll). The poll found Malloy leading Foley 49 to 42 percent among likely voters. The momentum seems to be in Malloy's direction. While Foley's numbers remain unchanged from a late September Q Poll (42 percent), Malloy's share of the likely vote has edged up from 45 to 49 percent. The Q Poll found that there is still plenty of volatility in the race. Seven percent of likely voters are still undecided and one-in-five (20 percent) say they may change their mind before Election Day.

The Senate Race

The Q Poll also found that after months of seeing former WWE Executive and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate Linda McMahon close in on her Democratic rival, State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, Blumenthal has expanded his lead to 54-43 percent. Only weeks ago the race was considered a statistical dead heat (49-46 percent).

The survey finds voters fairly sure of their choice for Senate. Only three percent of likely voters are undecided and seven percent say they may change their mind before Election Day

The Vote

In both races Women and Independent voters are key in determining Election Day outcomes.

In the Senate race independent voters back Blumenthal 49 to 44 percent. Only weeks ago independent voters favored McMahon (49 percent) over Blumenthal (44 percent). In the Gubernatorial election, both Malloy (89 percent) and Foley (85 percent) capture similar majorities of their party's vote. It is Malloy's leads among independents (46 percent to 42 percent) that is helping him close in on 50 percent of the likely vote.

There is a gender gap in both races. In the election for U.S. Senate, women support Blumenthal 63 to 32 percent while men favor McMahon 52 to 46 percent. In the Gubernatorial race, men back Foley 49 to 44 percent while women back Malloy 55 to 35 percent.

The Economy

More than eight-in-10 of Connecticut’s likely voters say (86 percent) rate the state's economy as "not so good" or "poor." More than a quarter (28 percent) say it is getting worse, while 14 percent say it is getting better and 56 percent say it is the same. While Foley leads among likely voters who say the economy is getting worse (57 percent to 33 percent), Malloy leads among voters who say the economy is getting better (78 percent to 12 percent) and those who say it has stayed the same (50 percent to 43 percent).

About the Poll

Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,119 Connecticut likely voters from October 7 – 11, 2010. The margin of error for a statewide sample of this size is +/- 2.9 percentage points.